Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
